Three NFL Week 9 Upset Picks To Consider

Three NFL Week 9 Upset Picks To Consider (2022)

These NFL Week 9 upset picks stand out as moneyline value plays based on our algorithmic prediction models, data angles, and/or recent news.

November 2, 2022 – by Jason Lisk

DJ Moore will hope to be able to take his helmet off to celebrate a big upset (David Jensen/Icon Sportswire)

Everybody loves an NFL upset pick, especially when it turns into a winning bet.

In this article, we pick three NFL Week 9 underdogs to win outright. We also keep track of our overall season performance, using the moneyline odds for each pick at publication time.

Last season, upset picks we highlighted in this column went 22-25-1 straight up, good for +17.0 units of profit if you had flat-bet one unit on each pick.

(To see our favorite NFL betting picks each week, including point spread, over/under, props, and other picks, check out our Staff Betting Picks.)

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Upset Picks Results to Date

Last Week: 0-3 for -3.0 units2022 Season: 10-14 for +5.1 units

Our slump extended into its third week after a white-hot start to the season, but that’s the nature of picking upsets.

Last week’s results had us on the wrong side of close-game and turnover luck again:

Carolina missed an (extended) game-winning extra-point attempt at the end of regulation, then missed a field goal in overtime and lost 34-31 to Atlanta.Arizona lost a 34-26 shootout to Minnesota. The stats were pretty much even, except for Arizona losing turnovers 3-1.The New York Giants lost for the second time all year at Seattle, 27-13.

Over the first five weeks of the season, our upset picks went 8-3 when a game was decided by a single score. Over the last three weeks, they are 0-5 in such games.

Week 9 NFL Upset Picks

Carolina Panthers (at Cincinnati Bengals)

Moneyline: +275Point Spread: +7.0

This is the top playable moneyline and spread pick, according to our models for Week 9.

Cincinnati struggled in its first game without WR Ja’Marr Chase, managing only 229 total yards against the Browns in a 32-13 defeat on Monday Night Football. The Bengals have had success against teams that don’t do well defending the pass and putting pressure on the opposing QB, but they have struggled in games where their offensive line gets challenged.

This game may come down to the Carolina Panthers being able to get pressure on Joe Burrow, because Cincinnati is not good at running the ball. The Bengals have had fewer than 100 yards rushing in six of its eight games so far. Even though they do not have a lot of sacks, the Panthers rank above average or near average in categories like net yards per pass allowed and pressure rate.

Meanwhile, Carolina is showing signs of life on offense, having easily its two best offensive games in the last two weeks with P.J. Walker at QB. So while it would be a sizable upset, the elements are there for a surprise.

New Orleans Saints (vs. Baltimore Ravens)

Moneyline: +125Point Spread: +2.5

This is another playable moneyline pick, according to our models, as well as a playable spread pick.

It might be about time to put the Saints as a “buy-low” candidate after their showing last week in a 24-0 win over Las Vegas. They were wrecked by injuries over the first seven weeks, including QB Jameis Winston, RB Alvin Kamara missing time, CB Marshon Lattimore and WRs Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry. They also played four games in an 19-day stretch in October, including a trip to London.

The Saints now may be getting healthier, more rested, and better at the right time.

We’ll have to wait to see if there is positive news on Lattimore or Thomas (a limited participant last Tuesday coming back from a foot injury). But Jeff Duncan of the Times-Picayune tweeted that he was hearing positive news on Landry and TE Adam Trautman.

New Orleans is currently dead last in turnover margin entering this game, while Baltimore is tied for third. Some regression to the mean there would benefit New Orleans.

Washington Commanders (vs Minnesota Vikings)

Moneyline: +155Point Spread: +3.5

This is not a playable moneyline pick by our models, but rather on team analysis and player trends.

The Vikings moved to 6-1 with their close win over Arizona, in a game where they again won the turnover battle and got a few key plays. Minnesota has still been outgained by over 200 yards on the season, while Washington nearly has a positive yardage differential.

Minnesota is also second in the NFL right now in turnover differential, while Washington is in the bottom quarter of the league in that category, providing some regression opportunity value.

Washington has also been a better team since QB Carson Wentz suffered a finger injury and was been replaced by Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke has averaged 7.5 yards per attempt in his two starts, compared to 6.4 for Wentz, and is taking sacks at half the rate that Wentz did.

News came out Wednesday that controversial Washington owner Daniel Snyder will explore selling the team. A home upset win over Minnesota to get over .500 could be the icing on a potentially great week for Commanders fans.

2022 Upset Pick History

Below is a full list of the picks we’ve made in this column so far in 2022. We list the moneyline odds at the time we made the pick (“WED ML”), the closing line (“CLOSING ML”), and result.

So far this season, 16 of the picks we’ve made have gotten positive closing-line value (CLV), where the moneyline odds moved in favor of our Wednesday pick by kickoff time. In comparison, eight picks had negative CLV.

WEEK	PICK	OPPONENT	WED ML	CLOSING ML	CLOSE VALUE	RESULT
1	Minnesota	Green Bay	105	-130	Yes	W, 23-7
1	NY Giants	Tennessee	210	200	Yes	W, 21-20
1	Pittsburgh	Cincinnati	232	266	No	W, 23-20
2	New Orleans	Tampa Bay	125	124	Yes	L, 20-10
2	NY Jets	Cleveland	215	220	No	W, 31-30
2	Atlanta	LA Rams	400	372	Yes	L, 31-27
3	Houston	Chicago	125	145	No	L, 23-20
3	Carolina	New Orleans	135	115	Yes	W, 22-14
3	Indianapolis	Kansas City	228	190	Yes	W, 20-17
4	New York Jets	Pittsburgh	150	140	Yes	W, 24-20
4	Washington	Dallas	155	135	Yes	L, 25-10
4	Seattle	Detroit	180	151	Yes	W, 48-45
5	Washington	Tennessee	115	-110	Yes	L, 21-17
5	Dallas	LA Rams	180	198	No	W, 22-10
5	Houston	Jacksonville	270	260	Yes	W, 13-6
6	New Orleans	Cincinnati	113	148	No	L, 30-26
6	Denver	LA Chargers	203	165	Yes	L, 19-16
6	Carolina	LA Rams	380	345	Yes	L, 24-10
7	Indianapolis	Tennessee	125	120	Yes	L, 19-10
7	San Francisco	Kansas City	131	-103	Yes	L, 44-23
7	Cleveland	Baltimore	230	240	No	L, 23-20
8	NY Giants	Seattle	135	145	No	L, 27-13
8	Arizona	Minnesota	167	170	No	L, 34-26
8	Carolina	Atlanta	182	177	Yes	L, 34-31 (OT)

Upset Pick Expectations

Whenever you read about upset picks from a betting perspective, it’s important to understand the implications. Individually, neither the betting markets nor our models give any of these three teams better than a 50-50 chance to win.

If you bet an underdog on the point spread, that isn’t such a big deal to you. You’re just hoping for the pick to at least keep it close and cover the number.

If you bet an underdog on the moneyline, though, you need them to win the game outright. When that happens, you get an outsized return on your bet. Given that context, we expect to get most of these picks wrong, and we also expect to see big swings in results from week to week—including losing all three picks in some weeks.

Depending on the payout odds, you can still turn a profit by winning, say, 30 or 35 out of every 100 moneyline bets that you make on underdogs. However, you need to manage your bankroll carefully to weather what could be long losing streaks along the way.

Week 9 Betting Picks & Models

If you’d like to find your own trends and angles for NFL betting, check out our custom NFL betting trends tool.

If you’d like to see all of our model-based picks for NFL Week 9 (game winner, point spread, over/under, and moneyline value), you can visit our NFL picks page on TeamRankings.

And if you’d like to see a curated list of some of our favorite betting picks that this week, along with the rationale behind each pick, check out our Staff Betting Picks.

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