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NBA Draft Odds, Predictions & Best Bets for #1 Pick, Bronny James and More
by Sascha Paruk in NBA Basketball
Updated Jun 26, 2024 · 7:39 PM PDT
May 15, 2024; Chicago, IL, USA; Bronny James participates in the 2024 NBA Draft Combine at Wintrust Arena. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-USA TODAY SportsThe 2024 NBA Draft is scheduled for June 26-27 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NYZaccharie Risacher is a heavy favorite to be selected #1 overall by the Atlanta HawksSee the NBA Draft first-overall pick odds and over/under draft positions for over 20 players including Bronny James
The first round of the 2024 NBA Draft will get underway at 8:00 pm ET on Wednesday, June 26, at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. After winning the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery in May, the Atlanta Hawks are on the clock.
While there is no consensus #1 prospect in 2024, as there was with Victor Wembanyama last year, the first-overall pick odds still show a heavy favorite in the latest 2024 NBA Draft odds.
Jump to: First-Overall Pick Odds | Draft Position Over/Unders
NBA Draft 1st-Overall Pick Odds
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Zaccharie Risacher | -250 |
| Donovan Clingan | +280 |
| Alexandre Sarr | +550 |
| Stephon Castle | +2500 |
| Reed Sheppard | +6000 |
| Matas Buzelis | +10000 |
| Ronald Holland | +15000 |
| Rob Dillingham | +15000 |
| Dalton Knecht | +15000 |
| Cody Williams | +15000 |
| Nikola Topic | +20000 |
| Zach Edey | +20000 |
| Kyle Filipowski | +25000 |
| Isaiah Collier | +25000 |
| Bronny James | +30000 |
Casuals who checked the NBA Draft odds a month ago and are just looking back now will notice a ton of movement at the top. Frenchman Alexandre Sarr, who spent last season in Australia’s NBL, was the -200 favorite in May, but his compatriot Zaccharie Risacher is now the -250 chalk to go #1 overall.
Sarr has fallen all the way to third-favorite at +550, with UConn big-man Donovan Clingan the new second-favorite at +280. No other player is shorter than +2500.
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Odds as of June 25 at DraftKings. See the full list of DraftKings states.
Is Risacher a Good Bet to Go #1 Overall at Short Odds?
Risacher is a 6’8 wing who averaged 10.1 PPG and 3.8 RPG in 22 minutes over 32 domestic-league games for Bourg of LNB Pro A. He also averaged 13.1 PPG and 3.3 RPG in 24 MPG during 17 more EuroCup games. (The EuroCup is basically basketball’s version of the Europa League; the top European clubs teams play in EuroBasket, which is the basketball equivalent of the Champions League.)
Across all 49 of his games with Bourg last year, he shot 42.7% from three. (The three-point line in international basketball is 22.15 feet at every point on the court.)
Sarr, a 7’1 center, averaged 9.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks in just 17.2 minutes per game in 24 games for the Perth Wildcats last season. Like Wemby before him, he’s not too shy about shooting from deep, averaging 2.0 three-point attempts per game. But he connected at just a 29.8% clip in the NBL, which has a similar three-point line to the Euro standard (i.e. about a foot-and-a-half closer than the NBA at the top of the arc).
Sarr isn’t nearly the defender Wemenyama is, either. He doesn’t quite have the height, and has a considerably smaller wingspan.
Draft odds have a tendency to snowball. Bettors see a player’s odds moving in one direction or another and assume that someone, somewhere, knows something. So they get on the bandwagon and the odds move even further.
In this case, the odds moved significantly towards Risacher when Jonathan Givony stated on Zach Lowe’s podcast that it would be a “big surprise” if Risacher wasn’t the Hawks’ pick.
However, there are also credible rumors that the Wizards, who draft second overall, are all-in on Sarr. That gives Atlanta the potential to trade back and still land their guy, or simply draft Sarr and trade him to the Wizards after, which happens a lot more in the NBA Draft than other sports. (E.g. Luka Doncic was technically drafted by the Hawks and Trae Young by the Mavericks before the deal that swapped one for the other.)
That’s why I am much more inclined to bet Sarr at significant plus-money than Risacher at short odds.
Best value bet for #1 pick: Alexandre Sarr (+550)
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2024 NBA Draft Position Over/Unders
| Player | Draft Position | Over Odds (i.e. later than) | Under Odds (i.e. earlier than) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bronny James | 47.5 | -140 | +110 |
| Carlton Carrington | 18.5 | +110 | -140 |
| Cody Williams | 8.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Dalton Knecht | 8.5 | +120 | -150 |
| Devin Carter | 10.5 | +130 | -170 |
| Donovan Clingan | 3.5 | -150 | +115 |
| Isaiah Collier | 18.5 | -170 | +130 |
| Ja’Kobe Walter | 15.5 | -130 | -100 |
| Jared McCain | 15.5 | -115 | -115 |
| Kel’el Ware | 19.5 | -100 | -130 |
| Kyle Filipowski | 23.5 | -120 | -110 |
| Matas Buzelis | 5.5 | -110 | -120 |
| Nikola Topic | 11.5 | -150 | +115 |
| Reed Sheppard | 3.5 | -105 | -125 |
| Rob Dillingham | 11.5 | -120 | -110 |
| Stephon Castle | 5.5 | +115 | -150 |
| Tidjane Salaun | 10.5 | -130 | -100 |
| Tristan da Silva | 16.5 | +110 | -130 |
| Tyler Smith | 27.5 | -155 | +120 |
| Yves Missi | 20.5 | -140 | +110 |
| Zach Edey | 15.5 | -100 | -130 |
Overall, 21 players are listed in DraftKings draft-position over/unders. The table above lists them in alphabetical order (by first name).
Bet the Bronny James Draft Position Over
The player that’s garnering the most media attention ahead of the draft is, understandably, Bronny James, son of LeBron. His draft position over/under has been set at 47.5, with the over (meaning later than pick number 47) slightly favored at -140. The Lakers currently own the #17 pick and the #55 pick.
While Bronny’s college stats were thoroughly underwhelming during his only season at USC (4.8 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 2.1 APG in 19.4 MPG), he was one of the standouts at the draft combine, greatly helping his stock.
That said, no one is suggesting that the Lakers are going to draft him 17th overall and – if he wasn’t LeBron’s son – there is a good chance he would wind up a free agent after the 2024 NBA Draft. I’m not crazy about the juice on the over, but -140 is still the better bet on Bronny.
Bronny James draft prediction: later than pick #47 (-140)
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