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I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering €“ I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering €“ this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Dolphins vs. Patriots.
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NFL Betting Primer: Dolphins vs. Patriots
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots – Spread Line: NE +3
The Patriots’ defense made the reigning NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles look mortal in their home opener, and they got robbed on the +4.5 cover after spotting their opponent’s 16 points from the jump. The Patriots defense generated pressure at a top-5 rate versus Jalen Hurts in Week 1. And they allowed just 5.2 yards per attempt with zero explosive plays. That was the exact opposite of how the Miami Dolphins boat-raced the L.A. Chargers, with explosive plays galore. Miami averaged 10.4 yards per attempt. Twice as much as the Patriots defense allowed on Sunday. The Dolphins offense versus the Patriots defense is the matchup many are looking at with Tua Tagovailoa boasting a perfect record versus Bill Belichick. However, the New England defense is beyond what the Chargers were trotting out, so I like New England’s defense to limit Miami more than the Bolts were able to do, even if they do not completely shut it down.
But I think what the Patriots offense showed in Week 1 is flying under the radar versus a Dolphins defense that was absolutely gashed by LA.
The Dolphins allowed a 60% conversion rate on third downs. LA scored on 80% of its red zone drives. New Patriots offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien dialed up the pace for the offense putting them second in neutral pace and sixth in neutral passing rate. I think both through the air and the ground attack €“ Dolphins allowed 233 rushing yards in Week 1 €“ will put the Patriots in a position to move the ball effectively.
Mac Jones showed out for 300-plus yards and 3 TDs versus a much better Eagles defense in Week 1, and I don’t see why he can find more success in a much softer matchup in Week 2. He plays so much better when the team plays WR Kendrick Bourne at full capacity. New England’s implied team total is 22 points which is higher than the Vikings offense this week.
Maybe it’s a Homer pick. But Sunday night, I am going with the Patriots to win outright.
And I bet a lot of that stems from Rhamondre Stevenson having a productive game on the ground. He predictably struggled in Week 1 versus a stout Eagles defense. It’s the no-run zone versus Philly’s fierce line as shown by Alexander Mattison’s most recent struggles on Thursday night. Expect a major bounce-back effort for Mondre against a defense that allowed 5.8 yards per carry in Week 1. Projections have him pegged for 53.4 total yards on the ground.
- My picks: Patriots ML (+140 Caesars Sportsbook)
- My props: Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 50.5 rushing yards (-115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
What is Betting Against the Spread?
Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.
What is an Over/Under Bet?
Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.
What is a Moneyline Bet?
A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.
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