MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Saturday (7/27)

Saturday brings along another full MLB slate of games as we dive into our top No Runs First Inning (NRFI) picks for today. As you place your baseball bets today, check out these MLB picks and predictions. For Saturday, we have two NRFI picks for you. Without further ado, below are my favorite NRFI plays for Saturday, July 27. Note that odds may change before the first pitch. 

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Saturday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks

(All odds courtesy FanDuel Sportsbook)

Chicago Cubs vs. Kansas City Royals

Starting Pitchers: Shota Imanaga vs. Seth Lugo

Our first NRFI pick today features the Kansas City Royals hosting the Chicago Cubs. The starting pitching matchup of Shota Imanaga vs. Seth Lugo is favorable for a scoreless first inning. Let’s break it down. 

Imanaga is having a strong season for Chicago with a 2.86 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. Through 18 starts, the left-hander has an impressive 15-3 NRFI record including 7-1 on the road. He’s also held opponents to a .131 batting average and .483 OPS in the first inning thus far. Plus, Imanaga boasts a 2.51 ERA on the road this year. 

The Royals, meanwhile, have struggled against left-handed pitching this month. They have just a .287 wOBA (25th in MLB) and 82 wRC+ (26th) vs. southpaws since the start of July. Imanaga can limit this lineup early on, especially with his strong first-inning track record. 

On the other side, Seth Lugo is rocking a 2.38 ERA and 1.04 WHIP amid his All-Star season for Kansas City. The veteran right-hander has tossed a scoreless first inning in 19 of his 21 starts so far, including seven straight. He’s allowed a .216 batting average and .527 OPS in the opening frame. Lugo also boasts a 2.24 ERA at home. 

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As for the Cubs’ offense, it’s been about league average vs. right-handers lately. They have a .308 wOBA and 99 wRC+ in the split since the beginning of July. Lugo should also hold serve to help cash the NRFI today. 

Furthermore, we have two teams with higher NRFI rates facing off here. The Cubs are 67-38 to the NRFI this season (64%), including 33-20 on the road and 7-3 over the past 10 games. Kansas City is 60-44 to the NRFI (57%). 

Bet: NRFI (-106)

Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox 

Starting Pitchers: Bryan Woo vs. Erick Fedde

Our second NRFI play on Saturday brings us to the Seattle Mariners visiting the Chicago White Sox. We have Bryan Woo starting for Seattle and Erick Fedde on the mound for Chicago. Both pitchers have favorable first-inning numbers, but the offenses are also very fadeworthy. 

Fedde has been a pleasant surprise for the White Sox and may end up elsewhere after the trade deadline. The right-hander is having the best season of his MLB career with a 2.98 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Fedde has a 16-4 NRFI mark with a 1.80 ERA and a .231 batting average allowed in the first inning. He also has a 7-1 NRFI record and a 1.47 ERA at home this year. 

The Chicago starter should continue his success in a good home matchup here. Against right-handed pitching during July, the Mariners have a .273 wOBA (29th in MLB), 79 wRC+ (27th), a .193 batting average (30th) and a 29.6% strikeout rate (30th). Seattle is also the league’s worst offense vs. righties in the first inning this season (.252 wOBA, 65 wRC+). 

The home half of this first inning should also send the NRFI cashing. Mariners starter Bryan Woo has an impressive 2.54 ERA and 0.87 WHIP this season. The right-hander has tossed a scoreless first inning in eight of his 10 starts. 

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Like the Mariners, the White Sox also have abysmal splits against right-handed pitching lately. During July, they have a .259 wOBA (30th), 65 wRC+ (30th), a .206 batting average (28th) and a 27.1% strikeout rate (29th) vs. righties. Chicago has weak numbers vs. right-handers in the first inning as well this year, with a .279 wOBA, 79 wRC+ and a .218 batting average. 

Finally, it’s worth noting the higher NRFI trends for both squads in 2024. The Mariners are 65-40 to the NRFI (62%) while the White Sox are 65-41 (61%), including 36-16 at home. 

Bet: NRFI (-142)

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Dan Servodidio