Divisional Round NFL Playoffs Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target

Dec 10, 2023; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) runs the ball as Buffalo Bills cornerback Christian Benford (47) defends on a play that was called back due to a penalty during the second half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY SportsLooking at the Divisional Round Playoffs NFL picks against the spread, home teams are favored in four of six gamesBoth South Division winners – the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFC) and Houston Texans (AFC) – are set as home underdogsEach of the Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills are given more than a touchdown as the home chalk in their games

If you’re looking to base your NFL picks against the spread picks for the Divisional Round playoff games based upon what happened during Wild Card Weekend, then it’s good to be a home team. The home side went 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS during last week’s six postseason contests.

Favorites are another matter, however. The chalk was 2-4 ATS last week. Home favorites were 2-2 ATS. That being said, the only away underdog to win outright was the Green Bay Packers.

In this week’s four games, the home side is favored in each game. Two teams – San Francisco by 9.5 points over Green Bay and Baltimore by 9 points over Houston, are favored by more than a touchdown. A 6.5-point home pick over Tampa Bay, Detroit isn’t far off that number.

Only the Buffalo Bills, 2.5-point chalk at home against Kansas City, are favored by less than a field goal. Both the Bills (-2 to -2.5) and Lions (-6 to -6.5) have seen the spread grow in their favor since the opening lines dropped. On the other hand, the number has shortened for both the Ravens (-9.5 to -9) and 49ers (-10 to -9.5).

Now, let’s check out all the best early bets in the NFL Divisional Round Playoffs ATS picks.

Divisional Round NFL Picks Against the Spread

Our top NFL ATS picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Lions, Packers, and Bills.

Odds as of January 17th, 2024 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Use the latest BetMGM promo code SBD158  for new users. Claim a Bet $5, Get $158 in Bonus Bets Offer in January 2024 that covers your first wager with site credit if it loses! This BetMGM bonus is one of the best NFL sportsbook bonus codes to use for the NFL playoffs and the Big Game on February 11.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOKOfferT&CsGet Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets if You Don’t Win21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (US); 1-800-327-5050 (MA); 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ); 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA); 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. See BetMGM.com for Terms. US promotional offers not available in MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.LOCK IN PROMOCODE: SBD1500CODE: SBD1500SIGNUP BONUSGET $1,500
BACKBET NOW

NFL ATS Picks 1: Lions Buck Tampa Bay

You have to go all the way back to 1957 to find an NFL postseason in which the Detroit Lions won two games. That’s also the most recent season in which the Lions won an NFL title, so the omens could be piling up quickly in the Motor City should Detroit beat Tampa Bay.

Who's moving on to the NFC Championship? #NFLPlayoffs

📺: #TBvsDET — Sunday 3pm ET on NBC📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/yk9PQis8PR

— NFL (@NFL) January 17, 2024

The Buccaneers turned in a dominant defensive performance during their Wild Card Weekend win over the Eagles. And Tampa Bay is 7-1 ATS as an away underdog this season. But the Detroit offensive line is strong when it comes to protecting QB Jared Goff. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield won’t be able to match the Detroit points output with his offensive unit. In Week 6, Detroit won 20-6 at Tampa Bay.

NFL ATS Picks: Detroit Lions -6.5 (-110), 1 unit

2024-25 NFL Conference Championship Odds TrackerRead More

NFL ATS Picks 2: Packers a Cover Band

The 49ers were off last week after earning the bye as the NFC’s top seed. San Francisco rested many players the previous week in the regular-season finale against the Rams. Now they’ve got to ramp it up against a Green Bay squad that’s been steamrolling opponents.

The Packers are 6-3 ATS in their last nine games. Meanwhile, the 49ers are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Take Green Bay to cover.

NFL ATS Picks: Green Bay Packers +9.5 (-110), 1 unit

NFL ATS Picks 3: Bills Coming Due

Written off when they were 6-6, the Buffalo Bills have won six games in a row since then. They’re 4-2 ATS during that six-game streak. One of those six wins was a 20-17 win at Kansas City.

.@chiefs & @buffalobills meet up in the playoffs for Part III? Sign us up 🍿

📺: #KCvsBUF – Sunday 6:30pm ET on CBS📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/eh1u4yIeIl

— NFL (@NFL) January 16, 2024

The Bills have twice lost to Kansas City in the NFL playoffs in recent years. But this year, they’re the team on a roll coming into this postseason clash.

NFL ATS Picks: Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-120), 1 unit

NFL ATS record: 2-1

NFL Divisional Round Picks Against the Spread Quick Picks

Ravens (-9) vs Texans: This certainly seems like a lot of points to lay on a team coming off a bye week, especially considering that Baltimore rested many starters in a Week 18 loss to Pittsburgh. Still, the Ravens are 11-6 ATS this season, 5-3 ATS at home and 1-0 ATS at home when favored by 9+ points. Houston is 0-1 ATS when a 9+ point underdog this season. However, the Texans are 4-1 ATS as an away underdog.

BETMGM SPORTSBOOKOfferT&CsGet Up To $1,500 Paid Back in Bonus Bets if You Don’t Win21+ only. Please Gamble Responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (US); 1-800-327-5050 (MA); 1-800-NEXT-STEP (AZ); 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA); 1-800-981-0023 (PR). First Bet Offer for new customers only (if applicable). Subject to eligibility requirements. Rewards are non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire in 7 days. See BetMGM.com for Terms. US promotional offers not available in MS, NY, NV, ON, or PR.LOCK IN PROMOCODE: SBD1500CODE: SBD1500SIGNUP BONUSGET $1,500
BACKBET NOW