2021 Bowl Betting: Four Upset Picks to Consider

2021 Bowl Betting: Four Upset Picks to Consider

We give four bowl betting upset picks we like for the 2021-22 bowl season, starting with some “Country Roads.”

December 16, 2021 – by Jason Lisk

Almost heaven? Nah, just our bowl upset picks for 2021 (John McCreary/Icon Sportswire)

Who doesn’t love a good bowl game upset?

Bowl teams can have various motivations, and bowl games also bring together teams that don’t often otherwise play. That can result in some big shockers.

We’ll go through and offer up four teams that we like as outright upset plays in the 2021 bowl season.

We should note that line movement has switched some teams from an underdog to a favorite, making them ineligible for our upset picks. You should check out our trends article to see some of those line moves.

Here are four bowl upset picks for 2021-22.

West Virginia +157 (vs. Minnesota) – Bowl Moneyline

Tuesday, December 28 at 10:15 p.m. ET.Our top Ensemble Forecast model moneyline pick for bowl games.Line has already moved downward two points since opening, to +3.5 (see our trends article on line movement).West Virginia was 112th in turnover margin in the regular season.Mountaineers opponents made 86 percent of their field-goal attempts, which ranked 115th in that category.Those luck-based factors point toward a team that could be better than its basic stats and 6-6 record.Minnesota is only 3-3 SU as a betting favorite this year.

San Diego State +125 (vs. Texas-San Antonio) – Bowl Moneyline

Tuesday, December 21 at 7:30 p.m. ETEnsemble Forecast, Decision Tree, and Similar Games models all rate this as one of the better bowl value plays.San Diego State coming off its worst result of year, a 33-point loss to Utah State in Mountain West Championship Game.Aztecs were without at least 20 players in that game due to COVID-19 protocols.Aztecs capable of strong performances when fully healthy, as evidenced by beating Pac-12 champ Utah early in season.San Diego State has one of toughest defenses (and run defenses) in FBS, ranking in top 10 in several defensive categories.

Central Florida +195 (vs. Florida) – Bowl Moneyline

Thursday, December 23 at 7:00 p.m. ETDecision Tree model has this game as playable.Florida was one of the most underperforming teams this season, starting season ranked No. 13 and finishing 2-6 in SEC.Motivational factors: Florida hasn’t scheduled Central Florida in 15 years during its rise as an American Athletic Conference power.This is UCF’s first opportunity to play Florida, Florida State, or Miami in any game in 12 years.This preseason, in regard to reports of the schools scheduling a series in the future, Florida DE Zach Carter said, “I think it will be good to show them who runs the state of Florida.”Florida was 2-8 ATS as a betting favorite this season.

Texas Tech +265 (vs. Mississippi State) – Bowl Moneyline

One of highest-rated plays by Decision Tree model and playable according to Ensemble Forecast model.Texas Tech will be coached by interim head coach Sonny Cumbie, who is leaving for the Louisiana Tech job after the bowl.Former Texas Tech head coach Mike Leach will be facing his old school.Despite Mississippi State being the most pass-happy school this year, the teams are similar in yards per play differential, as Bulldogs rank only 89th in yards per pass.Liberty Bowl in Memphis is played in seventh-coldest bowl venue during bowl season on average. See our trends article on colder bowl games.

To see more college football trends, check out our College Football ATS Records & Trends page.

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